Millennials electrified the election four years ago. Now, that jolt of energy may have fizzled out.
Fewer young adults are paying attention to the election, planning to vote or even deciding to register this year than in 2008, when they were a key group in electing President Obama, according to a Pew Research Center report released in September.
This election, there's a new batch of voters- nearly 17 million who can vote for the first time -and new voting restrictions in various states.
"It's a new youth vote, and these young people did not have the opportunity to engage in the campaign early on the way their older brothers and sisters four years ago did," said Heather Smith, president of Rock the Vote.
The context of this presidential campaign is different, she said. Four years ago, the primary was an open race on both sides. The Democratic primary between a woman and black candidate itself was historic. People tuned in to the election early on, before stumping for the general election began. Campaigns-specifically Obama's-targeted young adults as voters and volunteers.
"That didn't happen this time around," Smith said. "We're starting now in a moment where we have a lot of ground to make [up] to rival 2008."
Brandon Bacerra, 19, is eligible to vote this election but isn't registered. He said he hasn't been following the election and thinks it would be unfair to vote for either candidate. "I might consider [registering and voting], but I have a lot of catching up [to do]," said Bacerra, a Columbia College student.
Although enthusiasm is down among young people, voting expert Peter Levine doesn't think it will be a catastrophic fall-off compared to the last presidential election. "'08 was a very strong year, and what it feels like to me is a return to normal," said Levine, director of the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts University.
Interest and voter registration tend to rise as the election gets closer, he said. Voter registration of Chicago adults ages 18-24 surged in the month leading up to the official Oct. 9 deadline, according to the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners. Preliminary data showed young adults account for 9.9 percent of 1.3 million registered voters in Chicago roughly two weeks before Election Day, which is a slight decline compared with 11.3 percent registered in 2008.
There are many questions that won't be answered until after the polls close Tuesday: What will youth turnout be? Will Obama supporters who were disappointed by the president give him another chance, stay home or vote for Romney? And in Illinois, which is not a swing state, will voters even show up if they think the state is a lock for the president?
"When you're not in a swing state, you have a feeling your vote doesn't matter as much," said Patrick Segura, 24, who lives in Lakeview. He voted in 2008 and recently relocated to Chicago from Louisiana for school. Registering to vote in Chicago isn't a priority for him.
Just like other voting blocs, candidates and campaigns need to appeal to young adults, experts said.
"They're not going to miraculously show up. They have to be registered, talked to and their issues have to be addressed," Smith said. "We learned that lesson in 2008 and when that happens, they respond."
By The Numbers
With 46 million people under 30 eligible to vote this year, here's a look at what they're thinking this election compared with four years ago.
>Highly engaged in the election
Sept. 2008: 75 percent
Sept. 2012: 61 percent
>Definitely plan to vote this year
Sept. 2008: 72 percent
Sept. 2012: 63 percent
>Following campaign news very closely
Sept. 2008: 35 percent
Sept. 2012: 18 percent
>Given quite a bit of thought to election
Sept. 1996: 46 percent
Sept. 2000: 41 percent
Sept. 2004: 57 percent
Sept. 2008: 65 percent
Sept. 2012: 48 percent
>Absolutely certain registered to vote
2012: 50 percent
2008: 61 percent
2004: 57 percent
2000: 55 percent
1996: 55 percent
Source: Pew Research Center
lvivanco@tribune.com | @lvivanco