The Chicago Bears' game Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings isn't meaningless for those looking toward the 2015 NFL draft in Chicago. Although a Bears' win would keep them out of last place in the NFC North, it could cause them to tumble in the draft order.
By the Tribune's math, the Bears would pick seventh overall if they lose Sunday. If they win, they would pick somewhere between eighth and 11th.
Let's look closer at the Bears' draft-order scenarios, which are based on the strength-of-schedule (SOS) tiebreaker. Then we'll get to the math.
The Bears enter Week 17 as the NFL's only 5-10 team, and six teams have a worse record.
If the Bears lose to the Vikings, the only team that could tie them at 5-11 is the Redskins. Because the Bears have clinched a more difficult SOS than the Redskins, the Bears would pick seventh overall.
Seventh would be their best draft positioning since 2005, when they selected running back Cedric Benson fourth overall.
If the Bears beat the Vikings to finish 6-10, their draft position would worsen. It also would become more complicated because five other teams are 6-9: the Vikings, Falcons, Saints, Giants and Rams.
The Bears have clinched a more difficult SOS than the Vikings, Falcons or Saints. Each of those three teams would get a better first-round draft pick than the Bears in the case any of them tie at 6-10.
The Bears' SOS tiebreaker against the Giants would be determined by results Sunday. And the Bears have clinched an easier SOS than the Rams, so they would get a better draft position than the Rams in the case of a 6-10 tie.
Still following? Now let's look at the SOS math. Keep in mind that better positions in the first-round draft order are awarded to teams with the easiest strength-of-schedule.
Basically, a team's strength-of-schedule is calculated by totaling the wins by its 16 opponents. (For a team that played a division opponent twice, the opponent's win total is included twice. Also, a tie counts as ½ a win.)
Here are the current opponent win totals entering Week 17 for the teams with which the Bears could possibly tie.
6. Redskins (4-10) 118 - host the Cowboys
7. Bears (5-11) 125.5 - visit the Vikings
8. Falcons (6-9) 115.5 - host the Panthers
9. Vikings (6-9) 115.5 - host the Bears
10. Saints (6-9) 116.5 - visit the Buccaneers
11. Giants (6-9) 123 - host the Eagles
12. Rams (6-9) 127 - visit the Seahawks
If the Bears and Redskins tied at 5-11, the Bears'minimum opponents' win total would be 134.5, and the Redskins cannot surpass that.
If the Bears beat the Vikings, their minimum opponents' win total would be 131.5. The Falcons, Vikings and Saints can't surpass that.
The Bears'maximum opponents' win total would be 133.5. The Rams'minimum is 135.
That leaves the SOS tiebreaker with the Giants as the only one that would be determined by Sunday's results.
Wins by the Cardinals and Redskins would help keep the Bears' SOS down; and wins by the Falcons and Lions would help increase the Giants'. In other words, those results would help the Bears get a better first-round draft pick than the Giants in the case of a 6-10 tie.
Focusing on draft order is not what any team wants to do entering Week 17, but at least it adds a bit of intrigue to an otherwise lackluster matchup.